What to Expect after wisconsin

Ted Cruz’s victory in Wisconsin yesterday means that the upcoming GOP convention will most likely be contested.  And Bernie’s victory has reminded Hillary Clinton that a nomination won’t come easy to her.  Wisconsin was a must-win for both Cruz and Bernie as the race moves to New York, where both front-runners have plenty of influence.  Both Wisconsin victors won by huge margins: Cruz by 15 and Bernie by 13.  What are some of the takeaways from this?  I recently came across an article that listed some of the points from this upset in the Midwest, listed below:

A contested convention is more likely: For a figure as controversial as Trump, getting 1,237 delegates before the Republican National Convention wasn’t going to be an easy task, but it just got that more difficult.  Trump could romp in the Northeast and win California but still come up short, throwing the nominee battle into a contested convention, where the GOP establishment is unlikely to cast their lot with him.  Cruz and anti-Trump Republicans have hailed Wisconsin as a turning point, especially when oversights on procedure have cost Trump delegates in states he’s already won.

Trump needs to regroup: Coming up next for Trump is New York, which he calls home and where he’s up in the polls.  Yet Wisconsin shows that he has some brand maintenance to do.  Voters in Wisconsin weren’t as enthusiastic about Trump’s bold statements as in other states, and many have said that he’s led a dishonest campaign.  Trump lost to Cruz by 22 percent in suburban areas and 13 in urban areas, compared to just 3 points in rural areas, a bad sign as the race moves to the more heavily urban and suburban east coast.  This means Trump needs to appear more “presidential”.

Bernie needs to keep up the momentum: Bernie’s victory gave his campaign a much-needed push, yet he’ll need to keep that momentum going if he wants to knock off Clinton.  He’ll need to beat her out in New York on April 19 and then in some combination of Pennsylvania, Maryland, Connecticut, Rhode Island and Delaware in the upcoming week.  Yet he’ll be competing without any of his typical advantages: independents are able to vote in the Midwest, which is where most of Bernie’s support has come from, but only registered Democrats can participate in the east coast primaries.

Clinton is waiting for Bernie: Wisconsin is fairly homogenous, and Bernie tends to do better with white voters.  Yet states on the east coast are far more diverse, giving Clinton a clear advantage.  Newspapers in New York have been pointing out a recent awkward interview Bernie had with the New York Daily News, where he stuck to his core talking points instead of going further.

The GOP has some tough days ahead: While Republicans are gaining more states, as I’ve written about before, both Trump and Cruz still have an uphill climb ahead of them.  Exit polls showed that only 62% of Republicans would vote for Trump in the fall, and another 10% said that they’d support Clinton if he was the nominee.  Numbers were similar for Cruz: 66% said they would vote for him, while 6% said they’d take Clinton over him.  This is in theory good for John Kasich, since they back up the idea that he’s the only “electable” Republican still standing.  Yet Kasich has still had trouble earning votes, and he placed a distant third in Wisconsin.